The Matt LaFleur-Aaron Rodgers Era has started — for worse or better. The early returns don’t look too great for the Green Bay Packers: They defeat the Chicago Bears (–3 at home) 10-3 at Thursday’s season opener, together with Rogers going 18-of-30 for 203 yards and one touchdown. Defense? Very yes. Offense? Not too much.
The Minnesota Vikings (–3.5 at home) looked better in their own 28-12 win over the Atlanta Falcons, leaning on both protection and rushing to find the job done. Old-school! And the consensus accounts at press time show the Vikings having a 54-percent slender as 2.5-point street dogs for Sunday’s matchup (1 p.m. ET, FOX) at Green Bay. Can they belong in our NFL picks?
Quite possibly. FiveThirtyEight sees the Packers as only 1.5-point faves, using their own Elo-based projections. Jeff Sagarin’s numbers in The USA Today are pretty close to the NFL odds, though, with Minnesota rated slightly ahead of Green Bay on neutral ground.
Why the distinction? Week 1 remains in progress as we go to press, also Sagarin’s numbers have not been upgraded. They’ll need to be, at Soldier Field that the offense had following the problems. Grantedthe Bears had the best defense in the league last year, according to the DVOA stats (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) at Football Outsiders. Before betting, get those numbers.
We cashed in with all the”under” last Thursday, so maybe that’s well worth a second shot. The consensus reports show 57 percent of bettors that are ancient feeling the same way, driving the entire down from 46. At that time, 45 remains accessible; till we have some total projections to operate with, we’re essentially working with a net, but the”below” has some merit .
We already know even though that change as LaFleur and Rodgers get a little repetitions in — Green Bay’s crime is sketchy. Additionally, it looks like the Vikings want to run the ball, which is great for chewing up the clock. And the two defenses appear to be doing just fine through 60 minutes of drama.
Free NFL Pick: Under 45 (–107) at BetMania
Jason’s 2019 NFL picks 0-0 ATS, 1-0 Totals
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